Weekly US Dollar Index Technical Analysis – 15 June 2013

Here’s the Weekly US Dollar Index Technical Analysis for this week. We had been anticipating a bullish move on the US Dollar Index towards the 86.50 level but it had instead turned bearish and has been sliding steadily for the past two weeks. Here’s the Daily Chart of US Dollar Index Index.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart 15 June 2013

The critical support at 81.30 as well as the 81.00 level has both been broken. In fact, the parallel trend channel (in blue) has also been broken. The MACD on the daily chart has turned strongly to the down side and is now below the zero level. It appears that the bull in US Dollar Index is in need of a massive boost.

Therefore, there is a need to re-look at the US Dollar Index Technical Analysis with a new possible count. We have two main counts at this point in time. The first is that the US Dollar Index is in a complex correction and is heading to 79.40 level. From there, it might turn up and make the final ascent to 86.50 region.

The second count is a bearish count where the Primary [B] is complete and US Dollar Index has now started in its final Primary wave [C] with deep price levels. Here’s the 9D US Dollar Chart which shows the waves of the Primary degree. Notice that although the MACD broken above the zero line and bounced off the zero line, it failed to make a new high corresponding with the price action.

US Dollar Index 9D Chart 15 June 2013

Either way, the next key level to watch is the 79.40 region. If this level holds and US Dollar Index snaps up, it is likely headed to 86.50 region. Otherwise, it would confirm a bearish Primary wave [C] for the US Dollar Index.