The FEDs Done it Again – Just Look at the Chart of US Dollar Index

June 20, 2013 in USD

The FEDs Done it Again – Just Look at the Chart of US Dollar Index

They’ve spooked the market yet again resulting in a buy up of US Dollars and dumping of Gold and Silver. Here’s the 5H Chart of US Dollar Index. The US Dollar Index finally broke out of the trend channel that was looking bearish. The break out is strong but it would need to be backed by a follow through buying. The DOW and S&P 500 also got spooked and tanked. This points to the likelihood of the FED coming out to allay the fear and calm the markets. Will they succeed? Will the markets absorb the news in a calm manner and will that stop the big moves that is happening? That remains to be seen.

5 Hourly US Dollar Index Chart 20 June 2013

Looking at the Chart of US Dollar Index, it is showing a clear breakout. The MACD is also pointing up supporting further price surge.The MACD is near the zero level and if it breaks above that level, it would be the first indication of further upside to come.

Here’s the Daily Chart of US Dollar Index where it displays the parallel trend channel (in blue) that we have proposed last week. The trend channel broke to the downside which was a bearish situation. It has since closed back into the trend channel. Breaking out of a trend channel and closing back into it is a bullish move. It has also surge back above the 81.30 strong support zone. These two developments are pointing to further upside for the US Dollar Index.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart 20 June 2013

At this moment, there is only one price bar and that is not enough make a conclusive confirmation of a bullish move for the US Dollar Index. It would be wise to wait for at least another one or two price bars before making a bullish confirmation. We caught a High Probability, Low Risk Setup for the US Dollar Index earlier on 09 May 2013 and a similar move may be on the cards.

Tags: DXY, US Dollar Index, US Dollar Index Chart, US Dollar Index Technical Analysis, USD
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Weekly US Dollar Index Technical Analysis – 15 June 2013

June 15, 2013 in USD

Weekly US Dollar Index Technical Analysis – 15 June 2013

Here’s the Weekly US Dollar Index Technical Analysis for this week. We had been anticipating a bullish move on the US Dollar Index towards the 86.50 level but it had instead turned bearish and has been sliding steadily for the past two weeks. Here’s the Daily Chart of US Dollar Index Index.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart 15 June 2013

The critical support at 81.30 as well as the 81.00 level has both been broken. In fact, the parallel trend channel (in blue) has also been broken. The MACD on the daily chart has turned strongly to the down side and is now below the zero level. It appears that the bull in US Dollar Index is in need of a massive boost.

Therefore, there is a need to re-look at the US Dollar Index Technical Analysis with a new possible count. We have two main counts at this point in time. The first is that the US Dollar Index is in a complex correction and is heading to 79.40 level. From there, it might turn up and make the final ascent to 86.50 region.

The second count is a bearish count where the Primary [B] is complete and US Dollar Index has now started in its final Primary wave [C] with deep price levels. Here’s the 9D US Dollar Chart which shows the waves of the Primary degree. Notice that although the MACD broken above the zero line and bounced off the zero line, it failed to make a new high corresponding with the price action.

US Dollar Index 9D Chart 15 June 2013

Either way, the next key level to watch is the 79.40 region. If this level holds and US Dollar Index snaps up, it is likely headed to 86.50 region. Otherwise, it would confirm a bearish Primary wave [C] for the US Dollar Index.

Tags: DXY, MACD, Technical Analysis, US Dollar Index, US Dollar Index Technical Analysis
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US Dollar Index Technical Analysis – 12 June 2013

June 12, 2013 in USD

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis – 12 June 2013

The US Dollar Index Technical Analysis is showing a lackluster performance of DXY the past two days. The US Dollar Index is clearly showing weakness as it is kept being pulled back to the 81.30 key level like a magnet. It’s not able to launch itself into another bullish wave yet. Here’s the 5H US Dollar Index Chart. It shows the trend channel (in red) that has been established since the top of 84.40 for about two weeks now.

5 Hourly US Dollar Index Chart 12 June 2013

There was a strong move to the upside end of last week from the low of 81.10. There was even a gap and it crossed over the top trend line only to come back down, close the gap and get back into the trend channel. There are two positive points though. The first is that the US Dollar Index price did not sell off like it did in the past few weeks each time it touched the top trend line. It is still hugging the top trend line. The second point is that it did not breach the low of 81.10. Is it ripe for a lunge to the upside?

A clear signal need to be put in place to turn bullish. We would be looking for a set of higher highs and higher lows as a signal that the bull is back in US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Daily US Dollar Index Chart. It closed below 81.30 but has now recovered to 81.40. The price is now being supported by the lower trend line (in blue) of an upwards trend channel. This trend line must hold in order for the bull to have a chance of pushing the US Dollar Index higher.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart 12 June 2013

Tags: DXY, Forex, Technical Analysis, US Dollar Index, US Dollar Index Chart, USD
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