November 22, 2013 in USD/JPY
USDJPY Completion of Wave 3 – 22 Nov 2013
The wave 3 of the bullish run up has likely completed and USDJPY resistance zone has appeared. The implications of these is explained in this USDJPY Technical Analysis.
As you know, we have been bullish on USDJPY for sometime now. But the price never goes up in a straight line. There would always be pullbacks and there is a good chance of USDJPY pullback at this juncture.
First, here’s the daily chart of USDJPY which shows the symmetrical triangle being broken to the upside. There is a confirmation of the breakout as the price has now traveled beyond the end of the wave [d]. USDJPY did not have too much trouble taking out the top of wave [d]. This indicates that further upside is likely for this currency pair in the coming weeks.
The price has now traveled all the way to the top of wave [b] and have started to slow down. This indicates that a short term pullback is quite likely. This area which broken down previously is now proving to be a resistance zone.
The below 4H USDJPY chart shows the wave count of a lower degree. As you can see, wave  and  have been completed. This means that it is in wave  and as you would expect, wave 3 being the strongest, has managed to break above the triangle.
Wave 3 is normally 1.62 times wave 1. Currently, USDJPY has gone slightly above that level. This points to a good chance that wave  is completed as well and a pullback in the form of wave  is highly likely.
Wave 4 is usually shallow and the target is at 38.2% of wave 3. This gives a target of 99.70. Another likely target is the end point of the prior wave 4 which is at 99.58. So the target range is about the same level and that is indicated with the green bar.
This target zone is also where the top of the trend line of the triangle is. So this area is a confluence of support areas and should provide a good support for prices.
USDJPY resistance is appearing to slow down the price gain. A pullback is very likely back to the 99.60 region in the form of wave  before the final wave  pans out to the upside.