S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis – 15 May 2012
The S&P 500 lost further ground to the bears and now we have a clear five wave impulsive move down which is confirmed by the hourly MACD. As can be seen from the chart, the daily MACD is diverging upwards and this is an indication that the selling is over done and a relief rally is about to begin. The likely target for this retracement is 1362 as that is the retracement of 38.2% of the down move as well as the level of the wave four of the prior degree. It is hard to tell how long it would take and my best guess is about two days and it is likely to be in a simple zig-zag.
The alternate count is that the Minute wave [x] has ended and a bullish move up to 1475 is about to begin. Either way, both the primary and alternate counts are calling for a upwards move next although the primary target is limited to 1362..
S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence
The Fibonacci level at 1338 was broken after a short pause. The next Fibonacci band to the bottom is between 1282 and 1297. This is where S&P 500 will be heading to after the upwards correction.
S&P 500 Volume and MACD
The volume is still thin and the daily MACD has clearly turned down and is getting away from the zero line.